Miasuma - MGI Editions

Diesel Prices vs. Crude Oil: The $10-a-Barrel Trap

2026-10-12 by Miasuma

Hypothetical diesel-minus-crude spreads of 70 and 94 cents per gallon, with diesel fixed at $3.20 and crude at $105 and $95 a barrel. Not observed prices.

Quick answer: Diesel prices reflect a refined product, not just crude oil. A cheaper barrel does not guarantee cheaper diesel when refining margins, inventories, transport constraints or retail costs move in the opposite direction. Checked October 12, 2026. This explains how to evaluate today’s fuel headlines; it does not announce completed deliveries or predict a … Read more

Gold Before CPI: Why Hot Inflation Can Still Hurt Gold

2026-10-12 by Miasuma

Hypothetical matching-horizon real yields: 5 minus 2 equals 3 percent; 6 minus 2 equals 4; 5 minus 3 equals 2. Not gold returns.

Quick answer: Gold does not have to rise after a hotter CPI report. The useful question is whether inflation news changes expected real interest rates, the dollar and demand for protection—not simply whether consumer prices increased. Research checked October 12, 2026. This is a pre-release explanation, not a September CPI result or a live gold-price … Read more

Bank Credit Losses: Why Provisions Can Rise Before Defaults

2026-10-11 by Miasuma

Fictional allowance starts at 100 units; a provision of 35 less net charge-offs of 20 produces a closing allowance of 115, assuming no other changes. Not any bank’s reported figures.

Quick answer: A bank’s provision for credit losses is not the same as loans charged off during the quarter. The provision is an expense connected with updating expected losses; net charge-offs reflect charge-offs less recoveries. An allowance is a balance at a date. Mixing the three can turn a useful bank-earnings signal into a misleading … Read more

ASML Earnings: The €11–12 Billion Test Beyond the AI Hype

2026-10-11 by Miasuma

ASML Q2 2026 reported net sales of EUR 9.326 billion versus July Q3 guidance bounds of EUR 11 and 12 billion. Bounds form one range; Q3 actuals are not shown.

Quick answer: ASML earnings have a concrete test beyond the AI narrative: the company’s July outlook put third-quarter 2026 net sales at €11–12 billion and gross margin at 55–57%. Those are guidance ranges, not completed results. Ahead of the October 14 report, compare the actual figures with the dated guidance, then examine the next outlook … Read more

Tariffs Raise U.S.-Made Goods Prices Too: What the NY Fed Found

2026-10-10 by Miasuma

MGI hypothetical basket costs $100 at baseline, $105 in year one and $105 in year two. Annual inflation falls from 5% to 0% while the price remains $5 above baseline. Not observed CPI data.

Quick answer: Tariffs can raise prices of U.S.-made goods as well as imports. New York Fed researchers identify imported-input costs and reduced competitive pressure as indirect channels. That makes the October 6 research relevant beyond the imported-goods aisle—and means a fading inflation effect is not the same as an erased price increase. Research reviewed October … Read more

Consumer Sentiment Falls to 46.3—But Expectations Rose. What Changed?

2026-10-10 by Miasuma

October preliminary versus September final 2026 Michigan survey changes: sentiment -1.8 index points, current conditions -6.2, expectations +1.0. Not percentage-point changes.

Quick answer: October’s preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3, but the headline does not mean every survey component deteriorated. Current conditions weakened while the expectations index increased. This measures consumer perceptions, not a confirmed decline in spending or an official recession declaration. Evidence checked October 10, 2026 using the University of Michigan’s October preliminary … Read more