JOLTS vs. Nonfarm Payrolls: Why the Numbers Can Disagree

JOLTS vs nonfarm payrolls: JOLTS measures job openings, hires and separations; the monthly Employment Situation reports net payroll employment changes and household-survey measures such as unemployment. They cover different labor-market concepts and may refer to different months. A decline in openings does not automatically mean payrolls fell.

JOLTS vs. the jobs report at a glance

Question JOLTS Employment Situation / nonfarm payrolls
Main focus Labor demand and worker turnover Payroll employment, unemployment, earnings and hours
Key figures Openings, hires, quits, layoffs and separations Monthly payroll change; unemployment and labor-force measures; wages and hours
How to read the headline Openings are a stock measured at month-end; hires and separations are flows during the month Payroll change is the net monthly change in jobs on employer payrolls; unemployment comes from a separate household survey
Issuing agency U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) BLS
What it does not tell you alone Whether net employment rose by the same number as openings Why hiring and separations occurred, or how many vacancies remain

The two reports are complementary, not competing versions of the same statistic. JOLTS is not a count of jobs created. Nonfarm payroll growth is not a count of all vacancies or hires.

What does JOLTS measure?

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey tracks job openings, hires and separations at U.S. establishments. The BLS defines openings as positions available on the last business day of the month. Hires and separations cover changes to payrolls over the month. Separations include voluntary quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations such as retirement or transfers.

That distinction between a month-end stock and monthly flows matters. An employer can advertise an opening and fill it later; another employer may hire and lose workers during the same month. Neither event maps one-for-one to the net payroll change in the monthly jobs report.

In the latest JOLTS release available on September 27, July openings were 7.3 million (4.4%); hires were 5.1 million (3.2%); quits were 3.1 million (1.9%); and layoffs and discharges were 1.7 million (1.0%). The BLS also revised June openings down by 177,000. These are July readings and can be revised; see the official July JOLTS release.

What does nonfarm payrolls measure?

Nonfarm payroll employment comes from the BLS establishment survey, which estimates the number of paid jobs at covered employers outside the farm sector and several excluded categories. It is a jobs measure, not a direct count of unique people: a person with jobs at two covered employers can be represented in both payroll jobs.

The widely quoted monthly payroll number is the net change in employment from one month to the next. It reflects the balance of job gains and losses, not gross hiring alone. The Employment Situation also includes the household survey, which provides the unemployment rate, labor-force participation and other measures of people’s labor-market status.

For August 2026, BLS reported payroll employment up 162,000 and the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%. Those figures came from the establishment and household surveys respectively. The agency’s August Employment Situation release explains the two-survey structure and provides the detailed tables.

Why can JOLTS and payrolls point in different directions?

1. They measure different things

Openings are unfilled positions at a point in time. Payroll change is a net flow of paid jobs over a month. Openings can fall because vacancies were filled, withdrawn or otherwise changed; that alone does not establish whether employment expanded or contracted.

2. They may cover different reference months

Release dates do not mean the underlying data cover the same month. In the week of September 28, 2026, BLS is scheduled to publish August JOLTS on September 29, followed by the September Employment Situation on October 2. Comparing those headlines as if they were simultaneous measures of the same period would be misleading.

3. They use different survey data and can be revised

Both are estimates built from surveys, with different samples, concepts and collection processes. Initial values can change as additional information arrives and seasonal factors are updated. Review revised history rather than relying only on a single first estimate.

4. Industry mix can hide broad differences

Hiring, openings and payroll growth can vary across sectors. A concentrated gain in one industry can coexist with weaker hiring elsewhere. Check the industry tables and related measures before describing the whole labor market as “strong” or “weak.”

How should investors read the two reports together?

Use a small dashboard rather than a single headline:

  1. JOLTS openings and openings rate: Is labor demand broadening or cooling? Compare the level, rate, industry detail and revisions.
  2. Hires and quits: Are employers still filling roles, and are workers voluntarily leaving at a different pace?
  3. Layoffs and discharges: Is involuntary separation changing? Do not confuse a change in layoffs with a direct forecast of unemployment.
  4. Payroll change and revisions: How many net jobs were added or lost, and how did prior months change?
  5. Unemployment, participation and employment-population ratio: These household measures describe people and labor-force status, not simply employer payroll slots.
  6. Wages and hours: Average hourly earnings and the workweek add context to pay and labor utilization; neither is a complete inflation measure on its own.

This framework describes how to read data, not how to trade them. A labor report does not mechanically determine Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields or stock prices. Markets also react to expectations, other data and the details within the release.

What to watch in the September 2026 releases

The BLS schedule lists the August 2026 JOLTS report for Tuesday, September 29, at 10:00 a.m. ET. The September Employment Situation is scheduled for Friday, October 2, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The reference months differ, so label them clearly in any chart or comparison.

For the release-specific dates, baselines and checklists, read our August JOLTS report guide and September 2026 jobs report guide. The official dates are on the BLS 2026 schedule.

Frequently asked questions

Is JOLTS the same as nonfarm payrolls?

No. JOLTS reports openings, hires and separations. Nonfarm payrolls report net changes in paid jobs. They answer related but different questions.

Does a decline in job openings mean payroll employment fell?

Not necessarily. Openings are unfilled positions; payroll employment is the net change in paid jobs. Openings may decline while employers continue adding jobs, depending on hiring, separations and other changes.

Does JOLTS include the unemployment rate?

No. The unemployment rate is based on the BLS household survey published in the Employment Situation. JOLTS is an establishment survey of openings and labor turnover.

When are the next JOLTS and jobs reports?

As of September 27, 2026, August JOLTS is scheduled for September 29 at 10:00 a.m. ET, and the September Employment Situation is scheduled for October 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Check the BLS schedule for updates.

Primary sources

Educational information only; not individualized investment, tax or legal advice. Verify current figures and revisions with the BLS.